July 2014 – Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Analysis with ZEMA


ICE Henry Hub Nat Gas Futures (Jul. 2014)

On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), natural gas futures available for trade in the next 12 months at Henry Hub dropped in July 2014, as the summer of 2014 is not anticipated to be hotter than the past 2 summers. In July 2014, natural gas futures on ICE dropped by 5% when compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, the spread between current and previous month contracts (represented above by the red bar) averaged at $0.22 USD/MMbtu until July 2015. When compared to last month, Henry Hub natural gas futures in July fluctuated 30% less, varying between $4.09 USD/MMbtu to $4.63 USD/MMbtu for delivery in the next 12 months.

For the week ending July 23, 2014, EIA’s “Natural Gas Weekly Update” reported that although the storage build was lower than market expectations, strong production levels and tepid demand due to cooler-than-normal temperatures pushed down prices.[1] Market expectations projected a build of 96 Bcf in the fourth week of July, while the reported figure for the week ending July 23 was 90 Bcf. However, the gross production and total supply rates were, respectively, 4.98% and 2.80% higher compared to last year’s figures for the same time. Also, U.S. consumption dropped by 9% in the fourth week of July 2014 when compared to the same period last year, while the total demand was down 8.4% for the same period.



[1] “Natural Gas Weekly Update—Week Ending July 23, 2014,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, July 23, 2014, Accessed July 29, 2014, http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/.

Data Sources: ICE


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