March 2015 – Crude Oil Brent vs. WTI: Forward Curve (NYMEX)


March 2015 - Crude Oil Brent vs. WTI: Forward Curve (NYMEX)

The average NYMEX Brent forward prices for delivery until March 2017 (represented by the blue line in the graph above) decreased by 6 USD/Bbl to 60 USD/Bbl, while WTI (the red line) fell by 4 USD/Bbl to an average of 56 USD/Bbl in the first three weeks of March 2015 for the next 24 months when compared to the same period in February 2015. The Brent-WTI spread also dropped by 2 USD/Bbl to 4 USD/Bbl (the purple area) on average for the next 24 months.

According to EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, ending March 20th, 2015, an 11th straight weekly build brought US stockpiles to 466.7 million barrels, the highest level for in at least the last 80 years. (EIA) With declining US crude oil imports, the supply surplus seems to be the most dominant factor in sliding crude oil prices. On top of the unprecedented US crude output and tepid global demand, Saudi Arabia has been pumping at a near all-time high of around 10 million barrels of crude oil per day, close to an all-time record.(Reuters) The current bearish market condition is set to favor the refineries as their input would be a lot cheaper than expected, and markets do not expect this trend to change.

Data Sources: CME, NYMEX


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